一 | 出品 | 妙投APP
作者 | 董必政
编辑 | 丁萍
头图 | AI制图
2月4日，沉寂许久的A股光伏板块被一股神秘力量猛然点燃。
盘面上，泽润新能、中来股份等瞬间掀起“20CM”涨停潮，TCL中环巨量封板，光伏设备龙头晶盛机电大涨近13%，东方日升也紧随其后涨近7%。
资金的嗅觉总是最灵敏的，谜底很快被揭晓。 Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday hailed the "indelible contributions" of late leader Jiang Zemin and urged the whole Communist Party of China (CPC) and the Chinese people of all ethnic groups to continue advancing the cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics. Xi, also general secretary of the CPC Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, made the remarks at a grand gathering at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing marking the centenary of Jiang's birth. "We pay high tribute to his towering achievements and learn from his noble demeanor," Xi said, calling for continuous efforts to create better lives for the Chinese people and write an even more brilliant chapter for the Chinese nation. In his tribute, Xi described Jiang as a long-tested communist fighter and an outstanding leader of the great cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics. Jiang was the core of the third generation of the Party's central collective leadership and the principal founder of the Theory of Three Represents. Jiang was born in August 1926 in Yangzhou, Jiangsu Province. In 1989, he was elected general secretary of the CPC Central Committee. He passed away in 2022 at the age of 96. About 6,000 people were present at Monday's commemoration, which was presided over by Li Qiang and attended by Zhao Leji, Wang Huning, Cai Qi, Ding Xuexiang, and Li Xi -- all members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee -- as well as Vice President Han Zheng. Xi and other leaders met with members of Jiang's family and took group photos with them before the gathering began. FIRMNESS IN POLITICAL CONVICTION Jiang made indelible contributions to safeguarding the great cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics, breaking new ground in reform and opening up in all respects, achieving overall moderate prosperity in people's lives and successfully advancing the cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics into the 21st century, Xi said. Xi spoke highly of Jiang's steadfast commitment to communist ideals and his devotion to the Party and the people, calling on Party members to draw strength from his firm political conviction. He highlighted Jiang's view that the farther the country advances along the path of reform and opening up and the more its economy develops, the more crucial it becomes to strengthen the Party's leadership and improve Party building. On the new journey, Xi stressed, it is imperative to uphold the overall leadership of the Party and the centralized, unified leadership of the CPC Central Committee, unswervingly strengthen the full and rigorous Party self-governance, and ensure the Party remains the strong leadership core in the cause of socialism with Chinese characteristics. Jiang always stood with the people and cared for their well-being, Xi said, calling for efforts to learn from the late leader's dedication to and profound love for the people. Jiang pointed out that the fundamental goal of economic development is to raise people's living standards. He also placed emphasis on building a moderately prosperous society at a higher level in an all-round way that would benefit over a billion people, Xi said. Xi underscored the importance of adhering to a people-centered approach to development and demanded solid steps in promoting the all-round development of the people and common prosperity for all on the new journey. INNOVATIVE SPIRIT, STRATEGIC THINKING, COURAGE AND VISION Xi commended Jiang's efforts in advancing innovations in theory, institutions, science and technology, culture, and other fields, calling for drawing on his innovative spirit. By pooling the wisdom of the whole Party, Jiang created the Theory of Three Represents, which has further answered the questions of what socialism is and how to build it, and creatively addressed what kind of Party to build and how to build it, Xi said. Xi highlighted Jiang's role in opening China further to the world, including leading the country's accession to the World Trade Organization. On the new journey, Xi said, we must properly respond to the questions facing China, the world, the people and the times, and constantly break new ground in adapting Marxism to the Chinese context and the needs of the times. Jiang's far-sightedness and strategic thinking were highlighted by Xi. With an international perspective and a vision for the future, Jiang advanced the cause of the Party and the state with a slew of major decisions and measures, Xi said. Jiang made arrangements with foresight for building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, and put forth a series of thoughts on foreign affairs and international strategies to advance the development of a multipolar world and economic globalization in the right direction. Looking ahead, it is essential to fully and faithfully apply the new development philosophy on all fronts, accelerate efforts to create a new development pattern, and make solid headway in promoting high-quality development, Xi said, calling for further efforts to build a community with a shared future for humanity and add more positive energy to world peace and development. Xi also highlighted Jiang's extraordinary courage and vision. Jiang made resolute decisions at key historical junctures and critical moments, and responded calmly to risks and challenges, securing the steady advancement of China's reform and opening up as well as socialist modernization, Xi said. In particular, Jiang led China to successfully withstand the impact of the Asian financial crisis and secure the complete victory in the battle against the severe floods in 1998, Xi noted. "On the new journey, we should stand ready to withstand high winds, choppy waters, and even dangerous storms, resolutely safeguard national sovereignty, security, and development interests, and continue to write a new chapter in the miracles of fast economic growth and long-term social stability," Xi said. 
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二 | 据多方消息证实，马斯克旗下团队正低调秘访中国多家光伏龙头企业，从设备到硅料、硅片、从异质结（HJT）到钙钛矿，把光伏产业链全面摸底一遍。 这可不是随便看看。 1月22日，马斯克在达沃斯世界经济论坛宣布，SpaceX与特斯拉将在三年内（2026-2028年）于美国本土分别建设100GW光伏产能，合计200GW。该产能主要用于地面数据中心与太空AI卫星供能。
三 | 当“硅谷钢铁侠”将目光投向了正处在寒冬中的中国光伏，这是否意味着行业拐点已至？在马斯克的宏大叙事下，资本市场又该如何重新定价中国光伏？ 一、非“光”不可 过去两年，光伏行业经历了惨烈的周期下行。产能过剩、价格内卷，让大量企业深陷亏损泥潭，股价更是跌得只剩零头。 此时，“太空光伏”概念的横空出世，尤其是马斯克的亲自站台，无疑给绝望中的资本市场递上了一根救命稻草。市场充满了美好的联想：如果能搭上SpaceX和特斯拉的快车，中国光伏企业或许能通过技术输出或代工，再度迎来春天。 然而，梦想很丰满，现实往往很骨感。 消息发酵后仅一天，上市公司的澄清公告便如冷水般泼下。
四 | 晶科能源直言，“太空光伏”目前尚处技术探索期，公司虽聚焦地面光伏，但并无相关订单，未对业绩产生影响；高测股份也发布公告，澄清未开展太空光伏业务，未签署协议，更无订单产生。 市场情绪瞬间反转。截至2月5日收盘，光伏ETF大跌5.45%，钧达股份跌停，高测股份重挫超9%。 但在妙投看来，短期的情绪宣泄不应掩盖长期的产业逻辑。尽管上市公司纷纷撇清关系，但马斯克入局光伏，实则是“蓄谋已久”且“势在必行”的战略。 为什么马斯克非做不可？ 一方面，光伏是解决太空能源、缺电的重要方案。 据多家媒体报道，此次来访的并非单一团队，而是SpaceX和特斯拉两路人马，分工明确：一批聚焦太空光伏产业链，一批深挖地面光伏技术，覆盖从上游设备到下游组件的全环节。
五 | 在北美缺电方面，根据天风证券测算，2025-2028年间北美电力净缺口达88GW，主要源于AIDC（人工智能数据中心）和工业回流带来的100GW新增负荷，叠加传统机组退役影响。 面对北美缺电与电网系统长期老化，马斯克只能自己想办法，比如：马斯克旗下的xAI直接在田纳西州孟菲斯部署了大规模天然气涡轮发电机组，确保十万卡集群在数月内快速上线。 而地面光伏+储能的方式，可成为解决“电慌”的有效路径。 与地面光伏不同，太空光伏的光照强度是地面的5-10倍，且在地球同步轨道（SSO）卫星上可实现99%的持续光照，无需应对昼夜交替或天气变化，发电效率大幅提升。 太空光伏通过在航天器或卫星上搭载光伏组件，实现航天器或卫星的供电。 尽管太空光伏技术仍不成熟，但对于申请发射100万卫星以构建“轨道数据中心”的SpaceX来说是势在必行。 另一方面，光伏制造的门槛，拦不住马斯克。 中国光伏之所以产能过剩，很大程度上是因为技术壁垒不高。 仅2022年，就有约70家上市公司跨界杀入光伏，其中既有家电巨头美的、海尔，也有乳企皇氏集团、玩具商沐邦高科，甚至养猪的正邦科技也企图发展分布式光伏。如果连养猪、卖房的企业都能造光伏，特斯拉想入局光伏业，难度几乎为零。 妙投认为，马斯克团队虽只是调研，但入局是必然的。这也给，光伏行业的价值重估带来新的变量。 二、谁在价值重估的射程内？ 妙投认为，马斯克的入局将改善资本市场对光伏的预期，两类企业将迎来价值重估。 这两类企业分别是“卖铲人”、“核心材料商”。
六 | 虽然特斯拉擅长垂直整合，但在光伏产业链中，并非所有环节都能一蹴而就。 光伏产业链中，组件、电池片的扩产周期仅需半年，硅片稍长。但最上游的硅料，扩产周期长达1.5至2年，且具有极高的化工属性壁垒。这意味着，即便马斯克从今天开始建厂，短期内也很难完全实现硅料自给。 这一时间差，就是中国硅料企业的机会。 据上海证券报，2月4日马斯克旗下公司中国团队考察了协鑫集团，双方洽谈了颗粒硅与钙钛矿等方面的合作意向。协鑫集团未来有在美国建设颗粒硅和钙钛矿产能的意向。
七 | 就此，妙投向协鑫相关人士进行求证，的确存在。 为何是协鑫？因为颗粒硅技术。 相比传统的棒状硅，颗粒硅能耗更低、碳足迹更优，且成本大幅下降。此外，协鑫是少数掌握量产颗粒硅技术的企业之一。 一旦双方达成合作，无论是直接采购还是技术授权，协鑫的价值将被重估。
八 | 此外，“兵马未动，粮草先行”，设备商将最先受益。 要在美国建厂，必须先买设备。中国在光伏设备领域的统治力比光伏产品本身更强。 据澎湃新闻援引消息人士，SpaceX实际上已在1月上旬与迈为股份签单，采购了12条P型异质结电池生产线。之所以秘而不宣，皆因SpaceX严格的商业保密协议。
九 | 在自建产能的背景下，马斯克团队接触的晶盛机电（长晶炉）、高测股份（切片机）、迈为股份（电池设备）等设备龙头，都有极大概率成为特斯拉的供应商。这对于正苦于国内扩产放缓的设备商来说，是出海的巨大增量。 除了合作带来的业绩增长，太空光伏将成为估值拔高的重要因素。
十 | 这是更长远、也更具想象力的部分。 目前的太空光伏，主流选择是砷化镓（GaAs）电池。
十一 | 它效率高、抗辐射，但缺点极其致命——贵，且重。也因为太贵，它很难在大规模商业卫星上普及。 这恰恰是马斯克要解决的。
十二 | 资本市场此前热捧的异质结（HJT）与钙钛矿，在国内常被诟病“雷声大雨点小”，更多停留在PPT降本阶段。
十三 | 但马斯克的介入，可能会加速这一进程。 特别是钙钛矿，其理论效率高、重量轻、柔性可弯曲的特点，是太空光伏的绝佳载体。虽然目前稳定性尚存疑，但SpaceX拥有比任何光伏企业都多的卫星发射机会，可以进行高频次的在轨验证。 妙投认为，马斯克大概率会联手中国光伏企业攻克HJT与钙钛矿在太空环境下的技术难关。一旦技术路径跑通，这些目前仅存在于实验室或小规模试产的技术，将获得真正的商业化落地场景。 马斯克的每一次跨界，都会在资本市场掀起惊涛骇浪。从电动车到火箭，再到脑机接口，他擅长将看似遥远的技术变成现实。 此次“光伏大行军”，短期看，是一次对中国光伏产业链的全面摸底；长期看，则是利用中国成熟的供应链，为其星辰大海的征途补充能源拼图。 对于中国光伏企业而言，既然国内卷无可卷，不如抬头看天。若能进入马斯克的供应链，或与其联手探索太空光伏，相关企业的价值重估，才刚刚开始。
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